A Retention Struggle Hidden in Plain Sight
One of India’s largest telecom providers with over 200 million subscribers, was grappling with a quiet crisis. Customers were churning, but the reasons weren’t clear. Retention campaigns were deployed post-facto, often relying on intuition, timing assumptions, or blunt discounting. Despite a wide portfolio of services, prepaid SIMs, data packs, broadband, roaming, and enterprise connectivity, subscriber loyalty was eroding fast.
The telecom sector was entering a hyper-competitive phase, with new entrants pushing aggressive offers and bundling strategies. In this environment, understanding why customers leave, and more importantly, who might leave next, became a business imperative.
A Platform Wasn’t Missing. Precision Was.
The client had a robust Martech setup already in place, campaign platforms, audience databases, and messaging systems were all active and functioning. What was needed was not replacement, but refinement. The opportunity lay in making these tools work more cohesively, with smarter intelligence at the core.
The goal became clear: transform data signals into early indicators of churn, and infuse campaigns with precision, context, and agility. Rather than redesigning the Martech landscape, the focus shifted to unlocking greater value from what was already built by integrating real-time intelligence, nuanced segmentation, and actionable decision layers.
This wasn’t about starting over. It was about evolving the existing architecture to make customer engagement more timely, relevant, and effective.
Predictive Intelligence with Embedded Execution
The solution demanded more than just building a churn model, it required integrating intelligence seamlessly into the business’s operational layer.
Xerago’s approach combined predictive data science with system-level execution engineering to ensure insights weren’t just generated but acted upon automatically and at scale. We operationalized churn prediction by embedding it within the Martech workflow, making intelligence a live, always-on part of the campaign lifecycle, not a separate, analyst-dependent function.
The Engagement Unfolded Across Four Critical Pillars
The Engagement Unfolded Across Four Critical Pillars
Behavioral Signal Engineering
Churn Model Development and Scoring Logic
Martech Integration and Score Activation
Journey Personalization and Persona Mapping
Behavioral Signal Engineering
Churn Model Development and Scoring Logic
Martech Integration and Score Activation
Journey Personalization and Persona Mapping
An Embedded, Always-On Churn Intelligence Layer
At the core of our engagement was the development of a predictive churn system designed not just to analyze past behavior, but to drive real-time marketing actions. This wasn’t a static model sitting in an analytics report , it was a fully embedded, refreshable scoring engine integrated into the client's Martech ecosystem.
Xerago engineered a solution that identified at-risk customers, assigned dynamic churn scores, and activated persona-based journeys directly from within the campaign platform.
From data ingestion to score deployment and campaign logic, every layer of the system was designed to run continuously, adapting to behavior, powering decision-making, and improving with every cycle.
Key components we implemented:
- Derived 100+ churn signals from recharge, usage, and complaint data
- Built and refreshed a CHAID-based churn model weekly
- Embedded churn scores into Unica for real-time audience targeting
- Automated retention flows based on risk thresholds
- Linked churn personas to personalized journey templates
Designing a Transparent, Interpretable Model
We deployed CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection), a decision tree-based algorithm that allowed us to visualize churn pathways. Unlike black-box ML models, CHAID provided clarity on why a customer was flagged as high-risk, enabling campaign managers to understand the “why,” not just the “who.”
Each customer was assigned a churn risk score between 0 and 1. Those above 0.6 were classified as high risk, and stratified further into personas, e.g., “Price Drifters,” “Silent Drop-offs,” “Service Frustrated.”
Operationalizing Scores Within the Martech Ecosystem
The real value of the churn model was realized only when it was embedded into the Martech workflow. Xerago built ETL pipelines to inject churn scores directly into Unica Affinium 5.8, making churn risk a native, actionable attribute within the campaign database.
This enabled campaign planners to move from generic targeting to precision-driven engagement, without altering their existing workflows.
The system delivered intelligence exactly where it was needed, powering decisions in real time and elevating the effectiveness of every customer touchpoint.
Scaling Retention with Data-Driven Precision
The model wasn’t static. It was refreshed weekly. New interactions, service events, and recharge patterns continuously shaped churn predictions. A feedback loop fed campaign response data back into the model training pipeline , making the system self-improving.
Over time, new insights emerged:
- Customers with consecutive failed recharge attempts were 3.4x more likely to churn within 30 days
- First-time VAS users who didn’t re-engage within 10 days had a 2.2x higher attrition risk
- Call center escalations without resolution within 48 hours correlated with a 38% churn spike
These insights informed not just campaigns but upstream CX interventions, helping customer service and product teams realign processes.
Beyond the Model, Into Measurable Value
The implementation of the churn intelligence framework delivered transformative results across performance, customer experience, and operational efficiency. With predictive scoring embedded into the Martech workflow, retention efforts became sharper and more effective.
Campaigns were no longer broad and reactive,they became data-driven, persona-led, and timely. The model enabled the client to reduce attrition, enhance customer satisfaction, and extract significantly more value from each campaign execution.
Most importantly, the solution scaled seamlessly across regions without requiring new technology,demonstrating the power of intelligent enablement over platform replacement.
71% model
prediction accuracy
25% reduction
in churn among high-risk segments
40% increase
in Customer Satisfaction (CSAT)
130% improvement
in Retention Campaign ROI (2.3x gain)
Operational Thinking + Analytical Rigor
The success of the churn solution came from pairing robust analytics with seamless execution. Xerago didn’t just build a model, we embedded it directly into the Martech workflow, making churn scores a live, actionable part of every campaign.
Weekly score refreshes, real-time Unica integration, and persona-driven journeys ensured planners could act fast without relying on analysts.
A built-in feedback loop kept the model aligned with evolving behavior, making it self-correcting and future-ready.
Retention Reinvented, Intelligence Embedded
What began as a churn reduction initiative evolved into a scalable, intelligence-driven retention framework that fundamentally transformed how the business engaged with its customers.
By embedding predictive scores directly into the Martech execution layer, Xerago enabled cellular to shift from reactive outreach to proactive engagement , with campaigns informed by behavior, timed by risk, and personalized by context.
The solution didn’t require new platforms or additional teams; it unlocked more value from what already existed by weaving intelligence into everyday decision-making. With measurable improvements in churn, satisfaction, and ROI, the organization now operates with foresight, not just data. This wasn’t just a campaign upgrade. It was a strategic reset in how customer value is managed at scale.
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